If you run an HVAC business in the UK today, the chances are that the majority of your revenue still comes from gas boiler installation, servicing, and repair. Gas Safe work has been the bread and butter of the heating industry for decades, and it will remain a significant revenue stream for years to come. But a shift is underway, and how your business navigates it will have a direct impact on what it is worth when you come to sell.
The question is not whether gas or heat pumps will dominate the future. The answer is both, at least for the foreseeable period. The real question is how buyers assess businesses at different points on that spectrum, and where the sweet spot lies for owners who want to maximise their sale price.
The Gas-Only Business
A business that operates entirely on gas boiler work, domestic installations, annual servicing, breakdowns, and repairs, remains viable and valuable. Gas boilers are installed in approximately 23 million UK homes, and those boilers need servicing, repairing, and eventually replacing. The installed base alone guarantees decades of work.
However, buyers looking at a gas-only business in 2026 will factor in the trajectory of the market. The 2035 gas boiler ban for new installations, the Clean Heat Market Mechanism, and the government's heat pump deployment targets all point in one direction. A buyer acquiring a gas-only business knows they will need to invest in heat pump training, MCS accreditation, and new equipment to keep the business competitive in the medium term. That investment cost will be reflected in their offer.
This does not mean a gas-only business is unsellable. Far from it. If the maintenance contract book is strong, the engineers are qualified and settled, and the accounts are clean, there is absolutely a market for it. But the valuation will reflect the transition investment the buyer needs to make.
The Heat Pump Pioneer
At the other end of the spectrum, a small number of HVAC businesses have pivoted heavily towards heat pump installation. These businesses have MCS accreditation, trained engineers, and a growing portfolio of completed installations. They can offer customers access to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant, which makes their proposition financially competitive.
The sweet spot is not choosing between gas and heat pumps. It is having a strong foundation in gas boiler maintenance while building genuine heat pump capability. That combination is what buyers will pay the most for.
These businesses are attractive to buyers for different reasons. They represent future growth potential, access to a rapidly expanding market, and regulatory alignment. However, a business that has moved too quickly into heat pumps without maintaining its gas boiler base may lack the revenue stability that buyers also prize. Heat pump installations tend to be project-based rather than recurring, and the maintenance infrastructure for heat pumps is still developing.
The Sweet Spot: Dual Capability
The businesses that are currently achieving the highest valuations in the HVAC sector are those that combine a strong gas boiler servicing and maintenance base with growing heat pump capability. This dual-capability model offers buyers the best of both worlds: stable, predictable revenue from existing gas maintenance contracts, plus a demonstrated ability to compete in the heat pump market as it grows.
In practical terms, this might look like a business that generates 70% of its revenue from gas boiler servicing and maintenance, with 30% coming from heat pump installations and a growing pipeline. The gas work provides the cash flow and contract book that underpin the valuation. The heat pump work provides the growth story that attracts premium buyers.
The key is that the heat pump capability needs to be genuine, not aspirational. Buyers will verify. They will want to see MCS accreditation, training certificates, completed installation records, and customer feedback. Claiming heat pump capability without evidence will not add value; it may actually reduce buyer confidence.
The BUS Grant and Customer Access
One of the practical advantages of MCS accreditation is that it enables your customers to access the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which provides grants of £7,500 towards the cost of an air source heat pump. This grant significantly reduces the upfront cost for homeowners and makes heat pump installations commercially viable for a much wider audience.
For a buyer, this matters because it means your business has access to a government-subsidised market. MCS-accredited installers can offer a product that is materially cheaper for the end customer than non-accredited competitors. That market access has real commercial value and directly supports a higher valuation.
Practical Steps for Transitioning
If your business is currently gas-only and you are thinking about selling in the next 12 to 24 months, adding heat pump capability is one of the highest-value investments you can make. The steps are straightforward, even if they require some planning.
Start with training. Identify one or two of your most capable engineers and send them on an accredited heat pump training course. Costs typically range from £3,000 to £5,000 per person. You do not need to retrain your entire team at once; even two qualified heat pump engineers demonstrate capability.
Apply for MCS accreditation. The process takes three to six months and involves an assessment of your quality management systems and engineer competencies. The annual cost is approximately £1,500 to £2,500. Start the application early; the accreditation body can have a backlog.
Build a track record. Complete a handful of heat pump installations, even if the margins are modest initially. Document everything: installation photos, customer feedback, commissioning certificates. A portfolio of five to ten completed installations is sufficient to demonstrate genuine capability.
Maintain your gas base. Do not neglect your existing gas boiler maintenance contracts while building heat pump capability. The gas work is what pays the bills today and provides the revenue stability that underpins your valuation. The transition should be additive, not a pivot.
The HVAC sector is moving, and the businesses that are positioned at the intersection of established gas capability and emerging heat pump demand are the ones that buyers are competing for. Finding that balance is the single most impactful thing you can do for your valuation.
