For a while this year the refrigeration trade was waiting to see whether the next F-Gas step-down would be made steeper. It has not been, but it has not been eased either. The timetable that governs how much refrigerant can be supplied to the market is unchanged, and the next reduction is now close enough to plan around rather than file away. For any HVAC business that touches air conditioning or refrigeration, that quiet outcome matters more than the noise around it.
This post sets out what has actually happened and, more usefully, what it does to the value of a business built on certified capability. It expands on the first force in our October market briefing.
What the Rule Says
The GB F-Gas Regulation phases down hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants by capping the quantity that can be placed on the Great Britain market and cutting that cap in scheduled steps. The next step is a big one: HFC supply falls to 24 per cent of the 2015 baseline from 1 January 2027, and then to 21 per cent in 2030. This is not a proposal or a consultation position. It is the schedule already in force.
What changed this year was only the question of reform. Defra consulted from November 2025 on tightening the phasedown further, and the consultation drew well over a hundred responses. In May 2026 the government confirmed it would not legislate during 2026 to alter the steps from January 2027. The department has said it remains committed to reform and will respond further in due course, but the immediate effect is simple: the existing step stands, untouched.
Why a Pause Is Not a Reprieve
It would be easy to read "no legislation this year" as breathing room. It is the opposite. The reform debate was about whether to make the phasedown steeper. Pausing that debate does not move the 1 January step; it simply leaves the already-scheduled reduction in place. An owner who took the headline as a delay would be planning against a deadline that never moved.
The reform talk paused. The step-down did not. It is exactly where it has always been, and now it is a quarter away.
The practical consequence sits in refrigerant supply and price. As the cap tightens, the volume of virgin HFC available shrinks, the higher-carbon gases become more expensive and harder to source, and the value of recovering, reclaiming and reusing refrigerant rises accordingly. So does the value of being able to design and service systems around lower-carbon alternatives. The work does not disappear; it becomes more specialised.
What It Means for What Your Business Is Worth
Here is the part that owners weighing an exit should hold onto. A tightening refrigerant regime does not reduce demand for competent HVAC businesses. It concentrates that demand on the businesses qualified to work cleanly inside the rules. If your firm already treats F-Gas certification as standard, the step-down is not a cost to absorb. It is a barrier around the capability you have already built, and it gets a little higher each time the cap falls.
Buyers understand this. When an acquirer assesses an HVAC business with refrigeration or air conditioning work, they are looking for certified competence that will still be there after completion, because they know how hard it is to replace. A business that can prove that competence, in its certifications and its retained team, is offering something the regulation is actively making scarcer.
None of this is a reason to rush. It is a reason to make sure your certification coverage is documented and current, and to understand that the regulatory calendar is quietly working in favour of well-run, qualified firms. If a sale is somewhere in your thinking, that is a helpful tailwind to have at your back rather than a storm to weather.
